State: September GRF collections below estimate by 1.5%

Year-to-date returns for first quarter almost equal to estimate

State: September GRF collections below estimate by 1.5%

OKLAHOMA CITY  General Revenue Fund collections in September were $545.1 million and came in at $8.2 million, or 1.5 percent, below the monthly estimate. This amount is $40.1 million, or 7.9 percent, above collections in September of 2017. 

GNP App

“The first quarter year-to-date numbers are running essentially flat at 0.7 percent above estimate. Additionally, strong gross revenue performance should not overshadow the fact that the FY 2019 budget was built on these estimates that we are currently matching,” stated Northrup. “Simply put, the numbers we are seeing are not currently indicating FY 2019 will produce a windfall.”

Sales tax collections, while well below prior year, are in line with the estimate because of the anticipated transfer to the Oklahoma Department of Transportation per HB 3712, which temporarily redirected allocations totaling $29 million to the State Highway and Construction Maintenance Fund and the Oklahoma Railroad Maintenance Revolving Fund. The temporarily redirected allocations will conclude next month.

Sales tax estimates, like all monthly estimates, have anticipated economic growth and the fiscal impact of legislation factored into their estimates.

Gross production tax collections of $31.8 million were $2.2 million, or 6.5 percent, below the estimate and $9.5 million, or 42.7 percent, above the prior year. Notably, oil collections of $18,700 were $6.6 million, or 99.7 percent, below the estimate and $2.9 million, or 99.3 percent, below the prior year largely due to the timing of the apportionment changes affecting collections and should even out in the next few months.

Additionally, a transfer of $19.5 million was made to the Oklahoma Higher Learning Access Program (OHLAP).

“There were multiple factors that impacted collections in September, such as the OHLAP payment, the impact of the transfer as directed by HB 3712 and a timing issue with the gross production oil estimates,” said Office of Management and Enterprise Services Director Denise Northrup. “While a few reporting categories are missing estimates, there is nothing to indicate that estimates will swing to extremes in the coming months.”

Denise Northrup is the director of OMES, which issues the monthly GRF reports.

Major tax categories in September contributed the following amounts to the GRF:

  • Total income tax collections of $276.2 million were $21.9 million, or 8.6 percent, above the estimate and $35.2 million, or 14.6 percent, above the prior year.
    Individual income tax collections of $223.0 million were $131,000, or 0.1 percent, above the estimate and $28.5 million, or 14.7 percent, above the prior year.
    Corporate income tax collections of $53.2 million were $21.7 million, or 69.1 percent, above the estimate and $6.6 million, or 14.3 percent, above the prior year.
  • Sales tax collections of $149.5 million were $475,000, or 0.3 percent, above the estimate and $23.1 million, or 13.4 percent, below the prior year.
  • Gross production tax collections of $31.8 million were $2.2 million, or 6.5 percent, below the estimate and $9.5 million, or 42.7 percent, above the prior year.
    Natural gas collections of $31.8 million were $4.4 million, or 16.0 percent, above the estimate and $12.4 million, or 63.7 percent, above the prior year.
    Oil collections of $18,700 were $6.6 million, or 99.7 percent, below the estimate and $2.9 million, or 99.3 percent, below the prior year.
  • Motor vehicle tax collections of $15.7 million were $1.2 million, or 6.9 percent, below the estimate and $177,000, or 1.1 percent, above the prior year.
  • Other revenue collections of $71.9 million were $27.1 million, or 27.4 percent, below the estimate and $18.3 million, or 34.0 percent, above the prior year.

As state government’s main operating fund, the GRF is the key indicator of state government’s fiscal status and the predominant funding source for the annual appropriated state budget. GRF collections are revenues that remain for the appropriated state budget after rebates, refunds, other mandatory apportionments and after sales and use taxes are remitted back to municipalities. In contrast, gross collections, reported by the State Treasurer, are all revenues remitted to the Oklahoma Tax Commission.

Revenue tables can be viewed on the OMES website: http://omes.ok.gov/pages/september-2018-financial-data-tables

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