State: Year-to-date collections above estimate by 6.8%

OKLAHOMA CITY — General Revenue Fund collections in March were $508.9 million and came in at $31.8 million, or 6.7%, above the monthly estimate. This amount is $103.4 million, or 25.5%, above collections in March of 2018. Total collections over the first nine months of the fiscal year are $299.5 million, or 6.8%, above the estimate to date and $735.1 million, or 18.5%, above prior year collections. 

“March gross production revenues are currently above the estimate as a result of healthy oil prices and steady production in our area,” said Office of Management and Enterprise Services Director John Budd. “The existing fiscal year budget was built on oil prices of around $53 per barrel, so current prices indicate we will finish strong as FY 2019 winds down.”

Gross production tax collections of $74.1 million were $26.7 million, or 56.4%, above the estimate and $42.8 million, or 136.4%, above the prior year. Net income tax, sales tax and motor vehicle tax collections all fell slightly below the estimates, mostly due to increased rebates.

“As I’ve said before, the year-to-date numbers are our best economic indicator,” said Budd. “We’ve been hovering around 5-6% above the estimate for a few months now, which is a healthy amount of revenue growth and indicates the state budget is on track to meet or exceed February Board of Equalization projections.”

John Budd is the director of OMES, which issues the monthly GRF reports.

Major tax categories in March contributed the following amounts to the GRF:

• Total income tax collections of $141.2 million were $5.1 million, or 3.5%, below the estimate and $15.8 million, or 12.6%, above the prior year.
  Individual income tax collections of $127.5 million were $2.7 million, or 2.1%, below the estimate and $2.1 million, or 1.6%, above the prior year.
  Corporate income tax collections of $13.7 million were $2.4 million, or 15.1%, below the estimate. Collections from this source were net zero in March of 2018.  
• Sales tax collections of $173.8 million were $3.8 million, or 2.2%, below the estimate and $6.3 million, or 3.7%, above the prior year.
• Gross production tax collections of $74.1 million were $26.7 million, or 56.4%, above the estimate and $42.8 million, or 136.4%, above the prior year.
  Natural gas collections of $33.8 million were $760,000, or 2.2%, below the estimate and $8.2 million, or 32.0%, above the prior year.
  Oil collections of $40.2 million were $27.5 million, or 215.5%, above the estimate and $34.6 million, or 607.0%, above the prior year.
• Motor vehicle tax collections of $17.9 million were $1.2 million, or 6.4%, above the estimate and $1.3 million, or 6.5%, below the prior year.
• Other revenue collections of $101.9 million were $15.2 million, or 17.5%, above the estimate and $39.8 million, or 64.2%, above the prior year.

As state government’s main operating fund, the GRF is the key indicator of state government’s fiscal status and the predominant funding source for the annual appropriated state budget. GRF collections are revenues that remain for the appropriated state budget after rebates, refunds, other mandatory apportionments and after sales and use taxes are remitted back to municipalities. In contrast, gross collections, reported by the State Treasurer, are all revenues remitted to the Oklahoma Tax Commission.